Tropical Storm FAXAI Advisory Mon Sep 09

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 14W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 15NM ROUND EYE, WHICH, ALONG WITH HOURLY
RADAR FIXES, SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE (ERC) WITH THE INNER EYEWALL SURROUNDED BY AN OUTER EYEWALL
FLANKED BY INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE OUTER SPIRAL BANDING
OVER HONSHU. A 080431Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A COMPACT CORE WITH A
BANDING FEATURE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 5.5-6.0 (102-115 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF LOW (5-15 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) VALUES. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST TRACK
HAS SHIFTED ABOUT 13NM WEST AND IS NOW OVER YOKOSUKA.
   B. TY FAXAI IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE POLEWARD AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR AXIS WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS. AS EVIDENCED
BY 08/07Z AND 08/08Z RJTD RADAR FIXES, WHICH INDICATE A MORE
NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY. TY FAXAI WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 12 THEN
IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS BACK OVER THE
PACIFIC OCEAN, ALBEIT WITH COOLER SSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE KANTO PLAIN BUT THE SYSTEM
SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL AT ABOUT 90 KNOTS INTENSITY. AFTER TAU 12,
INCREASING VWS AND DIMINISHING OUTFLOW WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. AT TAU 24, TY 14W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT)
AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE.//
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