MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DESPITE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 30 KNOTS, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 230726Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC BUT ALSO SHOWS A WEAK FRONTAL STRUCTURE FORMING AND POSSIBLE TILT. THE HYBRID (SUBTROPICAL) SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES BUT HAS MAINTAINED A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND WARM (29C) SST VALUES TO OFFSET THE STRONG VWS. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM'S CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND NOW APPEARS TO BE MORE TROPICAL IN NATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW SUBTROPICAL FIX OF ST3.0 (45-50 KNOTS) AND A RJTD DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS). A RECENT ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED AN EXPANSIVE REGION GALE-FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH AN ELONGATED CENTER AND MAXIMUM WINDS OF 45-50 KNOTS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CHICHI-JIMA (33.1N 139.8E), ABOUT 96NM NORTHEAST, INDICATE EAST- NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 26 TO 30 KNOTS. TS 14W IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 14W IS ACCELERATING WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 WITH A 36NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24 BUT DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 24 WHEN THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) EAST OF NORTHERN HONSHU. TS 14W SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, THE SYSTEM HAS RE-CONSOLIDATED DESPITE THE SUBTROPICAL AND BAROCLINIC INFLUENCES ON THE SYSTEM. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY, AT LEAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, UNTIL VWS INCREASES TO 35-40 KNOTS. BY TAU 24, VWS WILL INCREASE TO 40-50 KNOTS, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND. BASED ON THE MODEL SPREAD AFTER TAU 24 AND POSITIONAL UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS NOW MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN