Tropical Storm LINGLING Advisory Tue Sep 03

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (LINGLING) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (LINGLING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 601 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AND WIDESPREAD, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 020528Z
AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM PGTW. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE OVERALL WITH MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (29-30 CELSIUS), AND
GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATOR OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TS 15W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, TS 15W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
GENERALLY POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AROUND
TAU 48, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL SLIGHTLY REORIENT
THE STR AND CAUSE A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE TRACK, ALTHOUGH IT WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY POLEWARD. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 72, ALLOWING FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 70
KTS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FOLLOWS THE SAME GENERAL TRACK AS THE
JTWC FORECAST, LENDING TO FAIR CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, THE POLEWARD TRACK WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. BY TAU 120, TS 15W
WILL BE OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL WATERS OF THE YELLOW SEA. COOLER
SST AND HIGH VWS WILL MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE AND STEADY
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS TS 15W APPROACHES THE KOREAN PENINSULA.
DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, PRIMARILY DUE TO LARGE DIFFERENCES IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS,
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK SPEED.//
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