Tropical Storm KUJIRA Advisory Wed Sep 30

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR
011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 15W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 756 NM EAST
OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE (MSI)
IMAGERY DEPICTS DENSE, PERSISTENT CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL
FEATURES PRESENT IN A TIMELY 290610Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS,
PGTW AND RJTD). TY KUJIRA IS TRACKING ALONG THE NOTRTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND THROUGH A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY MODERATE (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY KUJIRA WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND CONTINUED WARM SST WILL OFFSET INCREASING
VWS AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN 65 KTS INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12.
BY THIS TIME THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THEREAFTER, COOLER (22-24 CELSIUS) SST
WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TO 50 KTS BY TAU 24 AT WHICH POINT IT
WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN AS A
SIGNIFICANT COLD CORE LOW WITH 40 KTS WINDS AT TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODELS
REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A MAXIMUM 115 NM SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK
SOLUTIONS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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