Tropical Storm LINFA Advisory Sun Oct 11

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN)
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
307 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 100224Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
LIMITED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT WITH A
WEAKLY-DEFINED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON A
100224Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWING NUMEROUS 25-30 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING
A DEFINED CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SST
VALUES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AT 29-30C. TD 17W IS
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 17W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL STR. TD 17W WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY TO A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KTS BY TAU 24. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL
NEAR TAU 30 SOUTH OF DANANG, VIETNAM. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS AND
THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF VIETNAM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM UNTIL
DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A 70 NM SPREAD AT TAU
36. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND
THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
NNNN