Tropical Storm MITAG Advisory Sun Sep 29

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (MITAG) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (MITAG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 572 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) AND A 280652Z SSMIS 91GHZ REVEAL SPRIAL BANDS OF CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, GIVING GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. BASED ON A 280402Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 50 KTS AND A 280710Z AUTOMATED DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.9 (43 KTS) THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KTS WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AROUND THE SYSTEM.
HIGH (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) MAKE THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH, TS 19W CONTINUES
TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST, TS 19W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. AT TAU 48, THE SYSTEM
WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHWARD TRACK AS IT TRANSITS AROUND THE AXIS OF THE
STR. MAINTAINING HIGH SST AND LOW VWS, TS 19W WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AS IT ADVANCES ALONG THE TRACK. THE SYSTEM WILL REACH ITS
PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KTS 271NM SOUTHWEST OF JEJU BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH NOTABLE OUTLIERS TO BOTH THE
EAST AND WEST WITH A CROSS TRACK SPREAD OF 160NM AT TAU 72. THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 19 WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE
TURNING SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO A NORTHEAST TRACK AT TAU 96 AS IT ROUNDS
THE STR AXIS. THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE; HOWEVER,
COOLING SST AND INCREASING VWS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. UPON ENTERING THE SEA OF JAPAN AND INTERACTING WITH
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PRIOR TO TAU 120. ALL GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE SYSTEM RECURVING, HOWEVER, THERE IS A CROSS TRACK SPREAD OF
314NM. JGSI IS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER, MAINTAINING ITS COURSE
RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TRACK. AS A RESULT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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