Tropical Storm BUALOI Advisory Sun Oct 20

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (TWENTY-TWO)
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (TWENTY-TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 628
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING AND A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE OVER THE CENTER. A 190619Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLORPCT
IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS,
HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) BASED ON
THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATING 30-35 KNOT
WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS 22W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
STR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY STEADILY TO 85 KNOTS BY
TAU 72 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 130NM AT TAU 72, THEREFORE, THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 22W WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF STR. DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEEDS AND THE TIMING OF THE POLEWARD RECURVE,
MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH A SPREAD OF 340NM AT TAU 120.
THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST.
TS 22W SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS
BY TAU 96.//
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