MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (TWENTY-TWO) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (TWENTY-TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 628 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING AND A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OVER THE CENTER. A 190619Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLORPCT IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATING 30-35 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS 22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY STEADILY TO 85 KNOTS BY TAU 72 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 130NM AT TAU 72, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 22W WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF STR. DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEEDS AND THE TIMING OF THE POLEWARD RECURVE, MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH A SPREAD OF 340NM AT TAU 120. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST. TS 22W SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 96.// NNNN NNNN