MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 334 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE EVIDENT IN A 200500Z SSMI 37GHZ IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SST VALUES OF 29- 30C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TY 22W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 22W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 THEN IT WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR BY TAU 72. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN 80NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36 AND 105NM AT TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AS IT TRACKS OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANAS WITH AN INTENSITY NEAR 105 KNOTS AT TAU 36 AND A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS AT TAU 72. THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS INDICATED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE 24-HOUR AND 36- HOUR RAPID INTENSIFICATION AIDS, WHICH TRIGGER WHEN CONDITIONS ARE RIPE. C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 22W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TO NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES TO MODERATE LEVELS ALTHOUGH POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD IMPROVE. NUMERICAL MODELS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED AND TRACK ORIENTATION, HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN