Tropical Storm BUALOI Advisory Tue Oct 22

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 168 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY 22W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 30
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM 65 KNOTS AT 20/06Z TO THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A
15NM ROUND EYE EMBEDDED IN A COMPACT, ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CORE. A
210736Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND A VERY COMPACT CORE / EYEWALL. OVERALL,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 (90 KNOTS) TO T5.5 (102 KNOTS). UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05-10KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW. SST VALUES OF 29-
30C REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TY 22W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 22W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 36 THEN IT WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR BY TAU 48. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A 140NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AS IT TRACKS
OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANAS WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS AT TAU
36 TO TAU 48. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS INDICATED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE 24-HOUR AND 36-
HOUR RAPID INTENSIFICATION AIDS, WHICH TRIGGER WHEN CONDITIONS ARE
PRIME.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 22W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES TO STRONG LEVELS (>
40 KNOTS) ALTHOUGH POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD IMPROVE. NUMERICAL MODELS
DIVERGE SLIGHTLY WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED AND TRACK
ORIENTATION, HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT MAINLAND JAPAN
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG WESTERLY JET OVER HONSHU IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.//
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