Tropical Storm BUALOI Advisory Wed Oct 23

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 438 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A 10 NM EYE, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FALLS BETWEEN THE RJTD AND PGTW
DVORAK FIX INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KTS) AND T6.5 (127 KTS),
RESPECTIVELY. LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), RADIAL
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST)
SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION. TY 22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 22W WILL START ROUNDING THE STR AXIS AROUND TAU 24 AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT ONTO A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK BY TAU 72. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 36, BEFORE INCREASING
VWS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, GRADUALLY AT FIRST THEN MORE
RAPIDLY BY TAU 72. WITH ABOUT 120 NM OF SPREAD AT TAU 72, NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
   C. PRIOR TO TAU 72, TY 22W WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) AS IT BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THE TRACK WILL CONTINUE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL TAU 96 WHEN
IT BECOMES FULLY EXTRATROPICAL. HIGH VWS AND COOL SST WILL CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING DURING THIS PERIOD. AT TAU 96, SPREAD IS OVER
600 NM, LENDING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
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