Tropical Storm BUALOI Advisory Thu Oct 24

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOUD-FILLED EYE AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A
MICROWAVE EYE IN A 230531Z 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE PROVIDES HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS
FALLS BETWEEN THE 230600Z PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KTS) AND T6.0 (115 KTS), RESPECTIVELY. MODERATE
(15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS OFFSETTING EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) TO
MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT MARGINAL. TY 22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 24, TY 22W WILL GRADUALLY ROUND THE STR AXIS.
AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, VWS WILL
INCREASE, CAUSING THE INTENSITY TO WEAKEN TO 45 KTS BY TAU 72. BY TAU
36, TY 22W WILL INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48, ETT
SHOULD BE COMPLETE. NUMERICAL MODELS STRONGLY AGREE WITH THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, SPREAD IN THE MODEL
TRACK SOLUTIONS INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY, REACHING ABOUT 240 NM BY TAU
72. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED JUST WEST OF, AND SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN, CONSENSUS, CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. BASED ON THE
SPREAD AT TAU 72, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
NNNN