MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 022// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 736 NM SOUTH OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK, RAGGED EYE. A 240619Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY AN EYEWALL, HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH A BREAK IN THE EYEWALL OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT DUE TO STRONG (30 KNOTS) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CLEARLY EVIDENT IN THE SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE; THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS TILTED ABOUT 16NM NNW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 5.0-5.5 (90-102 KNOTS) FROM RJTD AND PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG VWS OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. TY 22W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG POLEWARD- ORIENTED MIDLATITUDE RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT ENCOUNTERS A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR TAU 12. THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TY 22W IS NOT EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE ATYPICAL SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGING ACTING AS A BLOCK. TY 22W WILL WEAKEN STEADILY AFTER TAU 12 AS VWS INCREASES TO VERY STRONG LEVELS (40-60 KNOTS). NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 150NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN