Tropical Storm BUALOI Advisory Fri Oct 25

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 736 NM SOUTH OF
MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK, RAGGED EYE. A 240619Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
SURROUNDED BY AN EYEWALL, HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
IS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH A BREAK IN THE EYEWALL OVER THE
SOUTH QUADRANT DUE TO STRONG (30 KNOTS) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER CLEARLY EVIDENT IN THE SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE; THE
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS TILTED ABOUT 16NM NNW. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 5.0-5.5 (90-102 KNOTS) FROM RJTD AND PGTW.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH STRONG VWS OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. TY 22W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG POLEWARD-
ORIENTED MIDLATITUDE RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT ENCOUNTERS A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR TAU
12. THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. TY 22W IS NOT EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SIGNIFICANTLY DUE
TO THE ATYPICAL SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
RIDGING ACTING AS A BLOCK. TY 22W WILL WEAKEN STEADILY AFTER TAU 12
AS VWS INCREASES TO VERY STRONG LEVELS (40-60 KNOTS). NUMERICAL
MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 150NM SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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