Tropical Storm LAN Advisory Mon Oct 23

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNING NR 28//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 293 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENED SYSTEM AS THE ONCE LARGE EYE FEATURE IS
NOW OBSCURED BY DENSE OVERCAST LAYER WHILE EXHIBITING FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER, A 220441Z 89GHZ AMSR2 IMAGE SHOWS A
SYMMETRIC RING OF DEEP CONVECTION STILL MOSTLY INTACT WITH ONLY
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN EDGE ERODING AWAY, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS
AND IS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.5 TO T7.0
(102 TO 140 KNOTS) AND A 220542Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 120 KNOTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POINT SOURCE OVER TY 25W NOW DISRUPTED AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE WESTERLIES. CURRENTLY TY 25W IS ACCELERATING
POLEWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, WIND RADII ARE NOW ADJUSTED
TO REFLECT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT ASCAT DATA.
   B. TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC REGION FURTHER DETERIORATING.
HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL VERY HIGH AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
AT OR ABOVE TYPHOON STRENGTH AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM BY TAU 24. THE 34, 50, AND 64 KNOT WIND RADII ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGE AS IT MAKES THE TRANSITION. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT, THUS LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
NNNN