Tropical Storm MANGKHUT Advisory Sun Sep 16

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT) WARNING NR 34//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 246 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT FIXES FROM RJTD AND PGTW WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY
IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. TY 26W HAS
REORGANIZED A BIT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AFTER EMERGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA FOLLOWING PASSAGE OVER THE
ISLAND OF LUZON. THE LARGE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NEAR-TERM FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING, CONSISTENT WITH NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, AND THE
TRACK HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TY 26W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE 72 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE PREVIOUSLY-DISRUPTED
CIRCULATION IS CONTINUING TO RECONSOLIDATE, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER SHOULD
ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN THE NEAR-TERM. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, LIKELY BEGINNING
AROUND TAU 24. PASSAGE OVER LAND IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL RESULT IN
DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK.//
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