Tropical Storm SAOLA Advisory Sun Oct 29

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 35//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 27W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 48 NM NORTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING, PREDOMINANTLY IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE,
WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED 15NM EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MULTISPECTRAL LOOP AND
RADAR IMAGERY FROM OKINAWA WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS HEDGED ON THE UPPER END OF MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.0 (55-65 KNOTS)
FROM RJTD AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOW IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (28
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY HAS STRONG
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, THE FORMER OF WHICH IS
CURRENTLY BEING ENHANCED DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. HOWEVER, THE STRONG OUTFLOW CHANNELS ARE OFFSET BY
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WHICH IS THE RESULT OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND DRY AIR ENTRAINING FROM THE
NORTH. TYPHOON SAOLA IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY SAOLA WILL CONTINUE TO RECURVE AND ACCELERATE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF JAPAN. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION, EVENTUALLY REACHING A PEAK OF 75
KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
CONTINUED DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THE
SYSTEM. AROUND TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION BECOMING FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU 48, BECOMING A COLD
CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE STORM-FORCE WIND FIELD. AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK.
HOWEVER, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM IN THE LATER TAUS AS IT ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST. DUE TO
THE VARIATION IN SPEEDS IN THE LATER TAUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST THROUGH TAU 24, AND OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 48.//
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