Tropical Storm TRAMI Advisory Sun Sep 30

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 35//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 28 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF RADAR FIXES AND ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS AN APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
WIDE RAGGED EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) AND IS
CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM RODN THAT REPORTED GUSTS TO 80 KTS
AT 290334Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (10-20 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS ALSO FAVORABLE (28-29
CELSIUS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 28W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE,
MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN, SHORTLY
AFTER TAU 24. THE CYCLONE WILL PASS QUICKLY OVER HONSHU AND BE BACK
OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF MISAWA AB SHORTLY AFTER TAU
36. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED
BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BUT INCREASING VWS AND LAND
INTERACTION WILL CAUSE TY 28W TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AROUND TAU 24
AND COMPLETE BY TAU 48, BECOMING A STRONG COLD CORE LOW WITH AN
EXPANSIVE GALE-FORCE WIND FIELD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
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