Tropical Storm KONG-REY Advisory Tue Oct 02

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 431 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A 15 NM ROUND EYE IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI). THE MSI ALSO REVEALS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS AVERAGED
BETWEEN PGTW (T6.0/115 KTS) AND RJTD/KNES (T5.5/102 KTS) DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE
(29-30 CELSIUS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR UNTIL JUST PRIOR TO TAU 72 WHEN IT
BEGINS A GRADUAL POLEWARD TURN AROUND THE STR AXIS. BY TAU 24, TY
30W SHOULD INTENSIFY TO 130 KTS BEFORE THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS
FAVORABLE AND THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO WEAKEN, GRADUALLY AT FIRST, THEN
MORE RAPIDLY. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
THE SPREAD AMONG THE MEMBERS GRADUALLY INCREASING TO JUST OVER 125
NM BY TAU 72. AS A RESULT, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
HIGH FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 30W WILL CONTINUE ROUNDING THE STR AXIS,
TRACKING NORTHWARD BY TAU 120. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, FALLING TO AN INTENSITY OF 70 KTS BY
TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THE TRACK IN THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS, HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS WHILE THE MESOSCALE MODELS TEND TO BE RIGHT OF
THE CONSENSUS TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED JUST WEST OF
THE CONSENSUS TRACK TO ALIGN BETTER WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
BASED ON THE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS, THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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