Tropical Storm KONG-REY Advisory Wed Oct 03

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY)
WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STY 30W HAS MAINTAINED A WELL
DEFINED EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND IT. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 020600Z
HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE 18 NM WIDE EYE. A
020432Z 89GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS STY 30W HAS CONCENTRIC EYE
WALLS AND IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
(CI) ESTIMATES OF T7.0 (140 KNOTS) FROM RJTD AND KNES. THIS IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY BELOW A PGTW DVORAK CI OF T7.5 (155 KNOTS) DUE TO THE ERC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT STY 30W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) ALONG WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 29 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. STY 30W IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 72, STY 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE AFOREMENTIONED ERC
MAY CAUSE MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY IN THE SHORT TERM. THE
COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW STY 30W TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN TO 135 KNOTS BY
TAU 12. STY 30W WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEYOND TAU 12 WHICH ARE A RESULT OF UPWELLING PRODUCED
BY TY TRAMI WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA SEVERAL DAYS AGO. DESPITE
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE AND ALLOW KONG-REY TO DECREASE TO AN INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS
BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48
WITH A SPREAD OF 110 NM. HOWEVER, MODEL TRACKERS DIVERGE AFTER TAU 48
AND HAVE A SPREAD OF 300 NM BY TAU 72. NAVGEM IS A SIGNIFICANT
OUTLIER TO THE WEST COMPARED WITH THE REST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. DUE
TO THE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE BY TAU 72 THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, STY 30W WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. BY THIS TIME STY 30W WILL BE OVER EVEN COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS). HOWEVER, STY 30W
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS IT TRACKS
NORTHWARD WHICH WILL OFFSET THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
SLOW THE WEAKENING RATE. KONG-REY WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD BY TAU 96 AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT
THAT KONG-REY WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 96 BUT THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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