Tropical Storm KONG-REY Advisory Fri Oct 05

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
RMKS/
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 26//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 132 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A CLOUD-FILLED EYE WITH FAIRLY SHALLOW CONVECTION AND
DRY AIR WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI AND A 040422Z AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWED BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD.
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS BEING OFFSET BY
MARGINAL (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), LOW OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. AROUND TAU 24, TY 30W WILL CREST THE STR AXIS AND BEGIN
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. BY TAU 48, TY 30W WILL BE IN THE SEA OF JAPAN (SOJ)
AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). BY TAU 72, TY 30W WILL BE
A COLD-CORE LOW NORTHEAST OF MISAWA AB. INCREASING VWS AND
DECREASING SST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE INTENSITY TO 40 KNOTS BY
TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 30W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD ALONG-TRACK
AGREEMENT BUT THERE IS POOR SPEED AGREEMENT. BASED ON THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE ALONG-TRACK SPEED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND TAU 72.//
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