Tropical Storm KONG-REY Advisory Sat Oct 06

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
RMKS/
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING
NR 30//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 211 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO A SMALL AREA JUST
NORTH OF THE LLCC AND AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDING TO THE
NORTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE ANIMATED MSI AND A 050506Z AMSR2 89 GHZ IMAGE WHICH DEPICTS
CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE LLCC AND
BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE LLCC IS IN AN AREA WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AT 26-27 CELSIUS AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS LIMITED. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WEST-NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 30W HAS RECENTLY CRESTED THE STR AXIS AND WILL BEGIN
ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. BY TAU 24, TS 30W WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT)
AND IT WILL COMPLETE ETT SOMETIME BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48. DESPITE
INCREASING VWS VALUES, TS 30W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN WIND SPEEDS OF
40 KNOTS OR GREATER AS IT DEVELOPS INTO A COLD-CORE LOW. THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED VERY CLOSE TO THE PRIOR FORECAST TRACK,
WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DESPITE SOME
VARIATION IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED, OVERALL MODEL SPREAD IS LOW AND
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH.//
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